A theory on a confusing Presidential poll, informed by the CD7 primary

Without research, one could be forgiven for assuming that John Edwards and Barack Obama are duking it out to become the liberal alternative to Hillary Clinton, whose pro-Iraq War, anti-free speech record has drawn the ire of activists. But the polls show something different. As noted at Eschaton:

Obama/Edwards supporters don't seem inclined to support the other one. Clinton is a popular 2nd choice as well as 1st one, and when Obama or Edwards are excluded from the poll their support largely shifts to Clinton.

Conventional wisdom, thrown under the bus by the truth.

That poll also shows support for Edwards as first choice nearly doubling from 9% to 19% since November 2006, while Obama's support has remained level at 19% - 20% since the day he declared. And there I go, evidencing Atrios' interpretation. I lean towards Edwards and I find myself bashing Obama.

Meanwhile, a very recent University of Iowa poll (found here) reveals this:

Results show that Edwards remains the leader among likely Democratic caucus goers, competing primarily with Clinton for caucus support. Edwards led by a substantial margin with 34.2 percent. Clinton followed with 28.5 percent, and Obama with 19.3 percent... Although Edwards led in support among Democratic caucus goers, this same group believed Clinton was the strongest candidate.

Why would the caucus-going supporters of two theoretically similar candidates default not to each other, but to a third, less-similar candidate? Consider the CD7 primary of 2006, where Peggy Lamm, a female centrist with a history of cooperating with Republicans, faced off against two ostensibly liberal male contenders. One was Ed Perlmutter, a Democratic insider with high name recognition and a long history of campaigning in the contested district. The other was Herb Rubenstein, an intelligent, affable newcomer who could claim early opposition to the Iraq War. Three months before the election, the polls put Perlmutter at 51%, Lamm at 31% and Rubenstein at 6%.

Now exit the realm of provable facts and consider a theory.

In a Democratic primary, voters are torn by competing forces. They want a candidate they can ethically support and they also want a candidate who can win a general election. An ideologically-driven candidate's mission, then, is not just to sell him or herself, but to sell the idea that an ideologically-driven candidate can win the general election. If the candidate fails, primary voters shrug their shoulders and vote for the centrist.

In CD7, Perlmutter succeeded because the voters of CD7 knew him as a person. Edwards is following a similar path in Iowa, where he has been campaigning forever.

Rubenstein did not have Perlmutter's name recognition or ground game, so he tried an alt-strategy, reaching out to anti-war voters, bloggers and activists. Similarly, Obama has not spent as much time in Iowa as Edwards, so he is trying his own alt-strategy, becoming a fundraising juggernaut and outright celebrity who the voters of Iowa may soon see as a potential winner.

If Edwards/Perlmutter or Obama/Rubenstein supporters conclude that their candidate is a loser, they are likely to default not to a similar candidate, but to someone they view as a general election winner.

There are doubtlessly imperfections in this comparison. But if you're thinking I'm forcing it just to give myself an excuse to start posting Christina Aguilera videos again, well, that's just crazy. Since you brought it up, though:

Tom Tancredo live-blog: He's running

[Ed. - Since this is a live-blog, accuracy of all quotes is subject to how fast my fingers can type.]

8:09 - Listening to WHO, courtesy of a link off of the Rocky. Tancredo is on. The host says there are journalists waiting around.

8:11 - Tancredo thanks talk radio for pushing the issue of illegal immigration. It is "talk radio that has allowed us to get where we are today." He claims 15 million are here illegally.

8:12 - "The melting pot is cracked."

8:15 - "Diversity can be positive, but not when it becomes a sort of state religion... Our national leaders have forgotten this... I am going to run for President of the United States."

8:17 - Host thanks Tancredo. Says listeners love him. Tancredo makes a fundraising pitch.

8:23 - Back from commercial. Host asks what "pushed Tancredo over the edge." He answers "the field of candidates." He says they all are for some form of amnesty, in some form of another. Host asks for Tancredo's plan on immigration; says in Iowa there are between 50,000 to 60,000 illegal immigrants who cost taxpayers millions of dollars, even if they are hard-working. Tancredo answers with a "controversial" part of his platform - "Enforce the law." Includes building a "barrier" on the border.

8:28 - Bush is working with "McKennedy" to stage "high-profile" raids that are largely for show, not because there is any real commitment to enforcing the law. Tancredo states we must go after employers. "It is not necessary to talk about rounding up millions of people." There will be attrition if you prosecute employers and enforce the borders.

8:32 - Host mentions a Cardinal Mahony saying there is a religious duty to help immigrants. (I assume it's this guy.) Tancredo says we should show compassion for American workers whose wages have been depressed and countries of origin, where people have been left behind.

8:41 - Tancredo asked to weigh in on Alberto Gonzales. Tancredo calls for his resignation. Not so much because of the current scandal, but because of Gonzales' prosecution of border agents.

8:47 - Caller asks about Tancredo's support for Fair Tax proposal. Tancredo says he supports it because it gets rid of the "burdensome" IRS. Tancredo claims a consumption tax will stimulate the economy and create millions of jobs.

They will do another segment, but I have to move on. My personal opinions later.

UPDATE: Oval Office 2008 questions Tancredo's timing, the Rocky and CNN's Political Ticker cover the story, Oreo fills us in on Tancredo's connections to hate groups, and Tancredo Watch wonders if "his candidacy will help frame the debate at all within the Republican party."

UPDATE: I had Tancredo at about 250-1 to secure the GOP nomination. After listening to Republican talkshow host Hugh Hewitt rake him over the coals on a wide range of subjects, I think 500-1 might be more like it:

HH: ...GOP question, just two years and three months ago, Tom, you endorsed an American Independent Party candidate over the Republican nominee in a special election out here in Orange County. Is that material to a campaign for the GOP nomination, that you threw the Republican overboard just two years ago?

Meanwhile Wonkette writes that Tancredo is "officially the 51st person and 4th diagnosed psychotic to enter the race." That's not just Wonkette being pithy. According to Raoul Lowery Contreras writing at TownHall, "Historians should note that when [Tancredo's] student deferments ran out at Northern Colorado University during the Vietnam War, Tancredo informed his Selective Service Board (the Draft) that he was mentally ill and suffered anxiety attacks."

The Politico reports that Tancredo is currently not one of the nine GOP hopefuls who will debate on May 3. Yikes. Tancredo has too many devoted followers to finish 10th in the early primaries. But he'll be hard pressed to break into the top 6, which means he may well decide to hang onto his CD6 seat in 2008.

Tancredo to proceed with vanity campaign

Rocky Mountain News:

Rep. Tom Tancredo will use Iowa talk radio on Monday to announce his plans for the 2008 presidential race, and all indications are that he's moving full-steam ahead on a longshot White House bid.

UPDATE: More from Mulkern. CD6 implications at CoCo.

Ritter hails energy legislation (and etc.)

Best email waiting for me in my inbox? Bill Ritter's press release supporting landmark New Energy Economy legislation:

Gov. Bill Ritter today hailed the final passage of House Bill 1281, the legislative centerpiece of his 2007 renewable energy agenda for Colorado.

"I applaud lawmakers from both parties for their bipartisan cooperation and vision as they work to enact Colorado's New Energy Economy," Ritter said. "In 2004, when Colorado voters overwhelmingly approved Amendment 37, we became the first state in the country to set renewable energy standards by citizen initiative.

"We're making history yet again with HB 1281 by expanding those standards and continuing to establish Colorado as the nation's renewable energy leader."

The governor congratulated lawmakers, investor-owned utilities, rural electric associations, environmental organizations, labor groups, consumer advocates and others for their collaborative efforts in shaping HB 1281.

"HB 1281 will help stimulate the rural areas at the heart of the New Energy Economy - regions like the Eastern Plains and San Luis Valley where wind, sun and agriculture are abundant," Ritter said. "The bill will help us attract manufacturers of wind turbines and solar products. It also will stimulate research and development of emerging energy technologies.

"And by expanding our renewable energy production and consumption, we'll reduce our reliance on foreign oil, which is good for our environment and our national security.

"I look forward to signing HB 1281 and the remainder of the New Energy Economy legislative package very soon," the governor added.

Other assorted good tidings:

• Hilarious: Bob Beauprez has a copycat.
• 2008 update: In Colorado, Washington and cyberspace.
• Lobbyists: Morgan Carroll owns you.

Help Our Heroes march today

The Sunday Denver Post reports that the Democratic Presidential nominee just can't win in Colorado because the party will surely elect an East Coast Liberal. The paper makes sure to get the obligatory quote from Colorado GOP chair Dick Wadhams:

"They are going to focus on national Democratic platform, not on the Rocky Mountain West," Wadhams said. "They will nominate a liberal nominee, and it will show that they are liberals, not moderates."

Apparently, the liberals Wadhams dreads have hit upon a dangerous strategy: Asking America to work hard to achieve its goals. On Friday, John Edwards spoke in Denver:

He opened with broad assessments of what he described as America's diminished ethical leadership in the world, challenged his listeners to fight global warming and promoted universal health care, easier access to college and higher minimum wages.

And what are our local liberals up to today? A press release that just landed in my inbox states that Democratic legislators Joe Rice and Chris Romer will spend today with the National Guard in support of "Help Our Heroes":

State Representative Joe Rice (D-Littleton), in partnership with elected officials and veterans groups, will be unveiling the "Help our Heroes" legislation package this Sunday, March 4, 2007, during a media event with local National Guard troops. The National Guard will be conducting their training during the event.

The Post has it wrong. The Democrats aren't just going to win Colorado in 2008. We're going to walk away with it.

John Edwards on Auraria Campus Thursday

John Edwards is one of the few people who can make sacrifice and hard work seem positively uplifting. See for yourself.

Does Al Gore's Oscar help him, should he run?

Take my poll at SquareState.

Democratic candidates meet in Nevada

Coverage: MyDD, Denver Post, New York Times, Politico

Coverage of Richardson in Denver: Rocky, Coyote Gulch

Gov. Bill Richardson comes to Colorado

The 2008 Democratic contender makes a quick stop at the Centennial Airport at 6 p.m. tomorrow.

UPDATE: More on candidates heading west at CNN and in the Post. And a preference poll at SquareState.

Healthcare hot topic of Presidential primaries

And it should be.

John Edwards on healthcare

Read Edwards' plan on johnedwards.com. And while I'm at it, here's a link to Colorado healthcare blog Ave Cassandra's analysis.

(More: Hillary, Obama, Richardson)

Colorado to be part of a national primary?

Via CBS:

After a handful of key contests spread throughout late January, a glut of states awaits on Feb. 5 - a day that threatens to become the equivalent of a national primary. The list of states that are holding contests on that day is significant: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Utah. But other states - California, Colorado, Illinois, Florida, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Texas and possibly more - are moving to join that club.

John Edwards fires, fires and rehires, or doesn't fire bloggers

An update on my post "Social conservative attacks Edwards bloggers."

The Edwards campaign has not officially responded. But Salon suggested the bloggers may have been fired. Meanwhile Chris Cillizza noted the difficulty of hiring anyone whose every political opinion had been cached on the Internet. But the prize for best insight and analysis goes to Glenn Greenwald, who pointed out controversial remarks made by a blogger for the John McCain campaign.

This point is important. McCain's blogger didn't get his candidate in hot water is because he reportedly concealed the relationship. Edwards, on the other hand, offered America honesty. And it appears America may make him regret it.

Social conservative attacks Edwards bloggers

CNN reports that a prominent social conservative, Bill Donohue, is attacking the John Edwards campaign for employing bloggers Amanda Marcotte and Melissa McEwan who, prior to working with the campaign, had been critical of the religious right.

There is a campaign to save Marcotte and McEwan's jobs launching here.

Donohue has a history of hysterical rhetoric. He has opined that child abuse in the Catholic church was "a homosexual scandal, not a pedophilia scandal" and that "Hollywood is controlled by secular Jews who hate Christianity." [Source] Donohue has also stated that, "'If you asked' some Hollywood actors 'to sodomize their own mother in a movie, they would do so, and they would do it with a smile on their face.'" [Source]

How John Edwards responds to Donohue will tell us a lot about how serious the candidate is about freedom of speech. I have been enormously supportive of Edwards. I hope his sense of right and wrong outweighs his political instincts.

Cross-posted at SquareState.

John Edwards, universal healthcare and the lazy, lazy media

Chris Cillizza's blog at The Washington Post is usually a must-read. But today, he's giving blogxygyn to the idea that presidential candidate John Edwards' universal healthcare plan could cost us the White House in 2008. The truth is that at the local and national levels, Americans favor raising taxes in order to fund a single-payer healthcare system.

Rudy Giuliani continues to be strange

Yesterday Political Wire reported that Rudy Giuliani purposefully left his party affiliation blank on a recent form: "Giuliani's campaign confirmed that leaving off the Republican designation wasn't a typo."

Had Giuliani realized that he has no chance of winning the Republican presidential primary? Was he secretly plotting an unaffiliated run at the White House? Apparently not. Today, he reversed field, telling South Carolina reporters the omission was in fact a "mistake."

Extremely theoretically speaking, if Giuliani were to run as an unaffiliated candidate, he'd have to find a way to explain his ill-informed endorsement of Bob Beauprez to the voters of Colorado.

John Edwards speaks at the DNC

Read the full remarks as prepared. Also, make sure to check out state party vice-chair Dan Slater's post.

Cross-posted to SquareState.

President 2008: What you want. And what you get.

On November 17, I hosted a poll at SquareState, asking activists who they were inclined to support in 2008. The top five vote-getters, in order: Al Gore (12 votes), Edwards or Obama (tied with 6), and Richardson or Schweitzer (tied with 4).

Today, there's a poll at ColoradoPols asking which candidate is most likely to win the nomination. The top five vote-getters so far, in order: Clinton (19 votes), Gore (13), Obama (11), Edwards (9) and Clark (7).

Things get testy on the campaign trail

Joe Biden and John Edwards speak out on the field. Yikes.

2008 update: Biden, Obama and Feingold out doing stuff

This afternoon I got an email stating that I should be "among the first to know" that Joe Biden is running for President. Which is good, because I've been referring to him as "2008 Presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden" for more than a month now.

(More: Huffington, CBS, Fox)

The announcement seems likely to get swamped by Senator Barack Obama's recently announced legislation to pull our troops out of Iraq.

(More: TPM, MyDD)

Meanwhile Senator Russ Feingold, who is not running for President, is moving to cut off funding for the escalation.

(More: Kos, SquareState)

More about how cool Ken Salazar is

Ken Salazar is so popular. I think I prefer "Clintazar" over "Hillaken."

As if the convention doesn't make us relevant enough...

...we may move our caucuses up.

Tancredo gets chilly reception in New Hampshire

The Rocky Mountain News (via Coyote Gulch) finds Tom Tancredo getting a cold shoulder in New Hampshire.

The story quotes Tancredo, "Yeah, I'm an underdog, but it's been the case almost every single time I've run.'' Which is totally accurate. Unless you count his races against Toltz in 2000, Wright in 2002, Conti in 2004, and Winter in 2006.

Edwards, Obama or Clinton: We can't lose

Our three 2008 frontrunners all commit to universal healthcare in this Chicago Tribune article.

Tom Tancredo rethinks amnesty

Tom Tancredo's Presidential bid requires the support of mainstream Republicans. And mainstream Republicans don't like his hardline stance on illegal immigration. So he's wiggling. From The Austin American-Statesman, via TancredoWatch, via ColoradoPols:

Tancredo has repeatedly opposed a guest-worker program because he said it would reward immigrants who entered the country illegally. But now, "if I see we're truly enforcing the law... I'd be willing to talk about a potential guest worker program."

Cross-posted at SquareState.

Your 2008 update for January 24, 2007

The media has a big, dumb crush on the Hillary/Obama storyline. Edwards and Biden are reacting to Iraq escalation. And John Kerry's not running in 2008.

Which would be the richer primary? Those that are running - Richardson, Obama, Hillary, Biden and Edwards? Or those that aren't - Kerry, Feingold, Warner and Bayh?

2008 presidential campaigns take to the web: Part 2

The righties at Patrick Ruffini think John Edwards has the best campaign website. They don't know how right they are. Edwards' site is more than just a pretty package. It offers tons of content and tools users can employ to set up their own communities and action plans.

Consider the websites of the 2006 Colorado governor's race. Bob Beauprez's website and blog were gorgeous. But Bill Ritter's ruled when it came to content - breaking news, dozens of white papers, on-the-scene updates, PDFs, YouTube links, and a blog that allowed comments. At the end of the day, voters chose content over packaging, substance over style.

2008 presidential campaigns take to the web: Part 1

Romney, Clinton & Co. are learning.

Bill Richardson is in

Despite my stated support for John Edwards, at least one poll found my politics align closely with Richardson's. So I look forward to seeing him on the campaign trail.

Hillary Clinton: "I'm in"

It's official. Hillary Clinton is running for President. The reason I'm not blogging her video, as I did with Obama's and Edwards', is that it's not on YouTube.

Hat-tip to rnoboa.

Tom Tancredo and the definition of conservatism

The American voter imagines that there are only two political philosophies. Pete Stark sits somewhere on the left and Jean Schmidt sits somewhere on the right and the rest of us fit somewhere on a continuum between them.

The truth is much messier. And nowhere is that more obvious than in the case of CD6 representative and 2008 presidential contender Tom Tancredo.

Tancredo is trying to position himself as a conservative. In The Denver Post, he was quoted as saying, "It appears to me that there is a void, which I think I can fill, (being) a true conservative with a conservative history."

But Tancredo's biggest fans are not the free-traders and religious fundamentalists that the average voter thinks of as conservative. Read what three prominent conservatives have written about him:

1. RedState questioned Tancredo's conservatism: A person with even modest social conservative convictions would simply not be funded by an organization whose activities are as repugnant as FAIR's."

2. Captain's Quarters derided Tancredo's aspirations: "Front runners in presidential politics usually get there by having a broad policy outlook and developing the kind of experience that lends credibility to their executive potential. Single-issue legislators rarely fare well when throwing their hats in the ring -- Bob Dornan springs to mind here -- and usually wind up as a laughingstock, and their issue marginalized. Tancredo's exploratory committee might want to take all of this into consideration before wasting political donations better used to help the eventual Republican nominee win the general election."

3. Robert Novak blamed Tancredo for Republican failures: "Although no more than 25 House Republicans follow Tancredo's rigid line, that is enough to obstruct a coherent Republican posture... In trouble on Iraq and federal spending, Republicans are being lured into a nativist posture that is political fool's gold."

The most passionate Tancredo backers are not Republicans the way that, say, George Will is a Republican. They're paleoconservatives, a school of the conservative movement that emphasizes family, cultural identity and a strong military. Things get blurry after this. Because it's easy for troubled souls to confuse "family, identity and strength" with "eugenics, race and violence." And that's how you get conflicts like the one RedState was writing about.

Over the last few days, Tancredo hasn't proved himself capable of winning over mainstream Republicans. He's hired a key Pat Buchanan supporter to run his campaign in New Hampshire. And despite his instance that he's popular in Iowa, the latest polls show him getting only 2% of the likely Republican primary vote. This might feel familiar to Tancredo. His 1998 election was the result of a five-way primary that he won with only 25.7% of the vote.

Maybe Tancredo's base isn't the GOP at all.

Over the past year, I've become convinced that a healthy percentage of the CD6 representative's support lies outside his party. I've personally heard anti-globalist Democrats sing his praises. Online, I've seen self-identified liberals post pro-Tancredo statements. It makes sense, in a way. After all, it's not just Republicans who feel uncertain about the future, insecure in their jobs, and scared of an increasingly multicultural country.

Let me put it another way. In the days before the 2006 election, Republican nominee Doug Lamborn in CD5 was pulling only 2% among Democrats. I will eat my computer if the same was true for Tancredo in CD6.

The good, the bad and the funny

Coyote Gulch's 2006 in Water is amazing and exhaustive. Scott McInnis' failure to live up to his charitable intentions is wrong and I'm glad PNA is calling him on it. But for sheer jaw-dropping weirdness, you can't beat this golden oldie on the right-of-right WorldNetDaily, which I stumbled across while searching for conservative reaction to Tancredo's candidacy. In it, the author opines that Tancredo is the best choice for President, if Mel Gibson doesn't run.

Conservatives reject Tom Tancredo candidacy

When Bill Winter and Rolling Stone question Tom Tancredo's ties to racist groups, it's easily dismissed as liberal finger-pointing. But when conservative outlets like RedState and The American Spectator do it...

Obama and Tancredo in

The Chicago Tribune reports that Barack Obama is about to hop in the Presidential hunt. (You can read my worries about his candidacy here.)

Meanwhile The Denver Post reports CD6 embarrassment Tom Tancredo "will form an exploratory committee this week for a possible presidential campaign but does not plan to give up his House seat." (You can read my worries about his candidacy on practically every page of this blog. Starting here.)

Edwards to deliver anti-war speech in Clinton's backyard

Today John Edwards will come out against funding the escalation in a speech at a historic Harlem church.

Tancredo's bid hinges on Allard's?

The Tancredo campaign announcement I wrote about last night has been downgraded from imminent to contingent. As in, Tancredo is running for President if he can't run for Senate. From the Post:

In addition to evaluating Iowa, Tancredo is also waiting to see whether Sen. Wayne Allard, R-Colo., decides to run for re-election in 2008, [Tancredo spokesperson Carlos Espinosa said. Tancredo has said he's interested in that statewide office.

The problem is that no one seems to know what Allard's thinking. Different story, same paper:

Sen. Wayne Allard has made up his mind about whether he will seek a third term in 2008, but he's keeping his decision secret a bit longer. Only Allard and his wife know his plans, press secretary Steve Wymer said Friday, confirming a report posted Thursday on Congressional Quarterly's website, CQPolitics.com. Allard has not said when he will announce his choice.

Tancredo and Allard are both extremely beatable opponents for probable Democratic nominee Mark Udall. But they have different weaknesses. Allard is so boring he's known in DC as Senator Dullard. Tancredo has the opposite problem; he's so not-boring he'll probably shoot himself in the foot at some point.

Tancredo can count on one thing. The fawning support of the mainstream media, which in Colorado includes the major dailies. Today's Colorado Media Matters reports that the Post is already giving Tancredo the benefit of their bias:

In a January 12 online article about U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo's (R-CO) interest in a possible presidential run, The Denver Post uncritically reported Tancredo spokesman Carlos Espinosa's claim that U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) "is not a very popular guy in Iowa." In fact, according to a December poll commissioned by Des Moines, Iowa, CBS television affiliate KCCI, Iowa voters rank McCain the most popular potential Republican presidential candidate among 11 contenders.

Cross-posted at SquareState.

Tancredo running for President?

The blogosphere - from SquareState to RedState - is buzzing about this unsubstantiated tidbit from The Des Moines Register:

Colorado Republican Tom Tancredo is on his way to Iowa to announce his candidacy for president. Tancredo, a U.S. House member, plans to be in Iowa Friday through Monday, with public book signings in Council Bluffs Saturday and West Des Moines Saturday.

Now at the risk of being unpopular, this blogger places the blame for all of this squarely on you, the voters.

Three ways to get into the 2008 Democratic convention

You can be a delegate. Or you can volunteer. Or you can be one of these folks.

Owens, Rowland get jobs they shouldn't have

Yesterday, I mentioned Bill Owens' support for Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney's 2008 bid for the Presidency. The Denver Post reports Owens has gone a step further and joined Romney's team as a senior advisor.

It seems like an odd fit. Romney has tried to position himself as a conservative alternative to John McCain. Owens has been ostracized by the GOP base for his support of Referendum C in 2005. Plus, in 2006 Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter often used Romney's healthcare plan as evidence that states could guarantee healthcare to all citizens. Owens' hand-picked successor, Bob Beauprez, didn't jump on the Romney bandwagon until much later.

I saw on SquareState that "Grand Junction NBC affiliate KKCO has hired GOP Lt. Gov. Candidate Janet Rowland to cover the state legislature"

This hire makes even less sense. Rowland said some things in 2006 that would convince any rational observer that live TV might not be a good idea for her. And her longtime involvement in partisan politics creates a major conflict of interest for KKCO.

Brownback to filibuster DeGette, Owens backs Romney, Allard loves Reagan

According to Colorado Confidential:

Kansas Senator Sam Brownback is planning to lead a "mini-filibuster" of Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette's reintroduction of a bill to expand federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.

It's likely that Brownback, who has Presidential aspirations, is staging the maneuver to re-establish his bona fides with the GOP's far right wing.

As long as I'm discussing the GOP's 2008 contenders, I may as well admit that I was listening to the Hugh Hewitt Show last night when Governor Bill Owens came perilously close to endorsing Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney's run for the Presidency. He then backtracked a bit, saying something very close to, "I'm not against McCain, but I'm for Romney."

Colorado's Senator Wayne Allard plans to introduce a super-important bill to honor a past Republican President, Ronald Reagan. Allard's bill would give Reagan's likeness a place of honor inside the Capitol, next to former President George Washington. The Rocky reports, "Similar legislation didn't move when Allard first introduced it last year, back when Congress was under Republican control."

I think it's safe to say there isn't a bill I could care less about.

Post, Sentinel pick up Salazar for VP rumors

Read 'em here and here. My original post is here.

Hillary Clinton [heart] Ken Salazar?

On The Chris Matthews Show this morning, one of the 12 regulars opined that Hillary Clinton's best choice for a runningmate would be Colorado Senator Ken Salazar.

UPDATE: Jason Bane discusses this post at 5280's Elevated Voices.

UPDATE: Jeralyn Merritt links to this post at TalkLeft.

UPDATE: The transcipt of the show is now online here:

MATTHEWS: ...We put it to the Matthews Meter, 12 of our regular panelists. Who would Hillary pick? This one's all over the map: four say Barack Obama, three say Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, who just dropped out of the presidential race a few weeks back, two say John Edwards, and two say New Mexico governor Bill Richardson. In fact, there's one vote there for Senator Ken Salazar of Colorado.

More thoughts on John Edwards for President

It wasn't so long ago, I was voicing my doubts about a John Edwards candidacy. I wasn't sure whether he had the pragmatism to fix the foreign policy messes made by George W. Bush. And between Hillary the establishment favorite, Obama the fresh face, and Biden the senior statesman, there seemed to be little ownable space left for Edwards.

Today he announced a Presidential campaign that appears to be as much about movement-building as it is about winning the White House. Ezra Klein and Atrios both have commentary. The former writes:

"This campaign," Edwards promised, "will be a grassroots, ground-up campaign where we ask the people to take action." As part of that, there'll be monthly Days of Action, the first on January 27th, which will exhort volunteers and supporters to enter their communities and work on a particular issue. "Americans," Edwards kept saying," have to be patriotic about something besides war," and that means taking individual initiative to ease poverty, conserve energy, and create the Good Society even without holding office. The announcement was striking for sounding less like a campaign for the presidency and more like a telethon. His campaign would certainly like to lead in the polls, but Edwards seemed more interested in leading a movement.

Klein's post reminded me of something I wrote about Edwards when I saw him at a luncheon back in March:

Most of his speech focused on poverty. He talked about the immorality of a culture that subsidizes oil companies while cancelling school lunch programs. And he talked about the face of poverty that he has seen traveling across the country over the last year. He also offered several concrete proposals on how to end poverty, like mixed-income communities and easier access to financial aid. I kept thinking, "This doesn't sound like someone who is running for President in 2008. This sounds like someone who has found his life's calling and who has dedicated himself to it. It sounds like someone who understands the promise of self-determination and is terrified to see it slipping away."

Can Edwards' crusade catch fire in the America of 2006, where the President ended the year with a speech begging Americans to "go shopping more"?

John Edwards from the Upper Ninth Ward

John Edwards is in

It's official.

Speaking of Joe Biden...

....(and I was), he's going after Condi Rice.

Rule of 14 catches up to Joe Biden?

I have nothing against 2008 Presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden. (Except for the whole bankruptcy bill issue.) He's got a good head for foreign policy, which America sorely needs. I look forward to seeing him on the campaign trail.

The problem is that Biden hasn't just broken the Rule of 14. He's set it on fire and jumped up and down on its ashes. His experience may make him a good President, but it may also make him a lousy candidate.

Here are the most recent polls I know of in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Happy holidays from John Edwards (for President)

I got the same email from John Edwards that MyDD and Benny's World did. An excerpt:

For the past two years, we've worked together to build an America that lives up to its promise - one where we all share in prosperity at home and one that shows real moral leadership around the world.

I'm proud of our successes fighting poverty, supporting working families, and standing up for what we believe.

Now, we have a big decision to make - and I do mean we.

I'm getting ready to take this effort to the next level - to bring Americans together in all fifty states to tackle the big challenges facing our country, from poverty and lack of health care, to energy and global warming...

If you want to take this effort to next level, send me an e-mail and
let me know: JohnEdwards@readytochangeamerica.com.

For the record, I tried to find a link. But when I typed in readytochangeamerica, it resolved to the aforementioned MyDD post. When I typed in readytochangeamerica.com, it resolved to johnedwardsevents.com.

Photo of Edwards, me and assorted bloggers courtesty of ProgressNow.

National labor officials get involved in convention dispute

It feels like the Democrats really want to hold the 2008 convention in Denver. They've delayed their decision, apparently to give Denver more time to raise money. And now big labor is trying to end a holdout by the Denver stagehands' union:

Progress was made Thursday on breaking an impasse that has held up Denver's bid for the Democratic National Convention.

The Denver stagehands union, which would handle much of the inside construction at the convention, thus far has refused to sign a pledge not to strike or picket during the gathering. The Pepsi Center ordinarily uses nonunion crews, and the union has said it won't sign an agreement unless the Pepsi Center management agrees to negotiate.

Now national labor officials in Washington, D.C., are trying to find a compromise between the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees Local No. 7 and Denver's host committee.

Chris Matthews on John Edwards

I'm six days late on this quote. But in light of my recent support for John Edwards, I'm blogging it:

"This is not hardball, this is batting practice," [Hardball moderator Chris] Matthews complained to the audience during a commercial break. "This guy is killing me. He couldn't do this four years ago."

Matthews' praise for Edwards is even more impressive when you consider the NBC host's propensity for regurgitating GOP talking points. Matthews was named Media Matters 2005 Misinformer of the Year.

Thanks to Coyote Gulch and Political Wire for the News & Observer link.

Bayh out, Edwards probably in

From today's Rocky:

Sen. Evan Bayh on Saturday ended his White House bid while 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards finalized plans to get in, fast-paced jockeying in a Democratic race under the shadow of two unannounced candidates.

Bayh decided he could not compete with Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, whose possible candidacies have dominated the positioning almost two years before the actual election.

Edwards, the former North Carolina senator, has decided he can and is planning to announce his campaign in New Orleans between Christmas and New Year's, two Democrats said.

That's it, I'm endorsing Edwards. Who's with me?

Me and John Edwards and possibly the longest post in the history of Coloradolib

I know what everybody out there is wondering.

What did I do today before I had lunch?

I sat in a conference room at the new Hyatt with former vice presidential nominee and 2008 frontrunner Senator John Edwards.

Who was there besides me and the Senator?

Writers from Square State, ColoradoPols, Dave Cullen, Colorado Confidential and Talk Left. And activists from Progressive Majority and Progress Now Action, who arranged the whole thing and I will love 'em forever for it.

The question I didn't ask the Senator.

Is Amanda Congdon super-hot in person?

The question I did ask the Senator.

"When I saw you speak in March, you advocated integrating neighborhoods by economic class. Um, can you, uh, explain that?"

What the Senator answered.

Edwards was sitting directly to my left and it was a real experience to have him turn, look me square in the eye, and describe one of his most controversial ideas. It involves a restructuring of HUD and the nation's housing voucher system to give people more choice and local governments more control. In America today, education and capital are mobile. If we give people the ability to migrate to the neighborhoods they choose, we can give technicians and laborers the same advantages that knowledge workers and the creative class currently enjoy.

Want to read more about that?

Go for it.

What else did we talk about?

Edwards rebuffed questions about political campaigns and talking points. He wanted to talk policy.

The conversation initially focused on social issues. The President has bought a tenuous recovery by running up a gigantic deficit while cutting taxes for the wealthiest Americans. The result has been a system where the GDP and Dow increase while wages drop or remain stagnant. Is there a solution or are we screwed?

Edwards offered three goals our country needs to pursue to right the economy. A war on poverty. A change in the energy dynamic. And a universal healthcare system. In fact, he said he is hard at work on a proposal that will guarantee efficient, economical healthcare for all Americans. Since Edwards had just proposed increasing the use of housing vouchers to help fight poverty in America, I wonder if his healthcare system might use them the same way, like a plan I saw in The Washington Monthly.

Edwards also talked terrorism. He managed to dig himself a bit of a hole as he tried to split the difference between legalizing torture and giving future presidents the tools to protect America. He pointed out that the Military Commission Act, Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib have lessened America's moral authority. But he refused to rule out the use of aggressive interrogation tactics in extreme circumstances. It wasn't the answer the crowd wanted, and we discussed it for a long time after Edwards left without reaching any consensus.

But to me, the exchange was a clear indication that Edwards is planning a White House run in 2008. It seems like he has thought through the shades of gray a President might face.

Who else is writing about the roundtable?

Probably all the bloggers I mentioned up top. Knock yourself out.

Where can you buy Elizabeth Edwards' book?

It's on Amazon.

Where did I eat lunch afterwards?

At the Appaloosa Grill with five other bloggers. We discussed what we'd heard; the idea that if we all linked to each other, none of us would actually need to spend time writing about the event; and whether Bill Winter will destroy Tom Tancredo or merely whup him. Were we being overly optimistic about the CD6 race? Maybe. Hanging out with John Edwards will do that to you. His charisma is legendary. But his optimism is what I find most appealing. Edwards believes in America. He's apparently devoid of cynicism or guile.

So, like, Edwards in '08, then?

Yeah, probably. Let's get through '06 first.

Photo courtesy of Progress Now Action.