Fawcett vs. Lamborn: The perfect storm
Just for kicks, let's assume the new rule wasn't designed for the sole purpose of allowing Both Ways Bob Beauprez to drop out of the election at the last second. Who's the most likely beneficiary of Gigi Dennis' largess?
How about Doug Lamborn?
Lamborn has never enjoyed a broad base of support within the GOP. He won his Republican primary with just 27% of the vote. And popular retiring Republican representative Joel Hefley refused to endorse him, calling his campaign dishonest and sleazy.
Yesterday, I got the results of a recent poll in CD5. They were hard to believe. But this morning, I was privileged to sit in on a conference call with the pollster, Bernard Whitman of Whitman Insight Strategies, and I left the call satisfied that the poll is an accurate representation of what's going on in the Springs.
The poll, which was taken before Hefley laid in to Lamborn, shows that the rightwing district prefers Democratic nominee Jay Fawcett to the Republican nominee. No doubt Fawcett's military career and deep roots in the community help. But it seems that likely voters are responding to Fawcett's straightforwardness and his pro-veteran, pro-national security agenda.
Right now, Fawcett has a healthy 41% to 28% lead among likely voters who were given unbiased biographies of both men. This shouldn't really have come as a shock. After all, the race is between an honest war hero and an extremist bureaucrat. But I pressed the point anyway, because it'd be easy to influence the results with slanted biographies. This wasn't the case. The biographies were honest. And the results are real.
We're looking at an open seat, a wingnut without the support of his party, and a Democratic candidate who's perfectly matched to his district. There may never be a better chance to elect a Democrat in CD5.
What a statement that'd make.
Want more on this story? Pacified at Square State points out that even if the Republican's wildest dreams come true, they have still lost tremendous ground it what used to be their stronghold.
How about Doug Lamborn?
Lamborn has never enjoyed a broad base of support within the GOP. He won his Republican primary with just 27% of the vote. And popular retiring Republican representative Joel Hefley refused to endorse him, calling his campaign dishonest and sleazy.
Yesterday, I got the results of a recent poll in CD5. They were hard to believe. But this morning, I was privileged to sit in on a conference call with the pollster, Bernard Whitman of Whitman Insight Strategies, and I left the call satisfied that the poll is an accurate representation of what's going on in the Springs.
The poll, which was taken before Hefley laid in to Lamborn, shows that the rightwing district prefers Democratic nominee Jay Fawcett to the Republican nominee. No doubt Fawcett's military career and deep roots in the community help. But it seems that likely voters are responding to Fawcett's straightforwardness and his pro-veteran, pro-national security agenda.
Right now, Fawcett has a healthy 41% to 28% lead among likely voters who were given unbiased biographies of both men. This shouldn't really have come as a shock. After all, the race is between an honest war hero and an extremist bureaucrat. But I pressed the point anyway, because it'd be easy to influence the results with slanted biographies. This wasn't the case. The biographies were honest. And the results are real.
We're looking at an open seat, a wingnut without the support of his party, and a Democratic candidate who's perfectly matched to his district. There may never be a better chance to elect a Democrat in CD5.
What a statement that'd make.
Want more on this story? Pacified at Square State points out that even if the Republican's wildest dreams come true, they have still lost tremendous ground it what used to be their stronghold.
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