Parsing the 2008 Colorado Senate race

I refuse to blog about the idiocy that reigned at the state capitol today. Fortunately Square State has it covered. In the meantime, let's make some wild guesses about the Colorado 2008 Senate race.

1. The early favorites.

Incumbent Republican Senator Wayne Allard will probably break his pledge to step down after two terms, which means the GOP nomination may be his by default.

CD2 Democratic Congressman Mark Udall has already announced he will run for Allard's seat, which may convince potential Democratic contenders to stay on the sidelines.

But assume that for some reason, that race doesn't happen. Here are four more scenarios, in order from most to least likely.

2. The early second favorites.

In the unlikely event Allard keeps his pledge, the person most likely to be the GOP nominee is Colorado's current Republican governor, Bill Owens. I've even heard rumblings from Republicans who want to pressure the uninspiring Allard to step aside so that Owens can rejuvenate his political career with a Senate run, with an eye towards a presidential bid in 2012 or 2016.

One of the few Democrats who can go round for round with Owens is Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper. I snapped the photo that accompanies this post at the press conference where he bowed out of this year's gubernatorial race. Assuming Democratic nominee Bill Ritter wins the governor's mansion in November, the 2008 Senate race is the most logical next step for Hickenlooper. But does he really want an extended career in public service? I don't think so.

But I do think that these are the two true heavyweights of Colorado politics. Both are accomplished, well-known, well-funded, and relatively popular. The race would be electric.

3. I got your culture war right here.

Imagine the fireworks if former Republican gubernatorial candidate Marc Holtzman ended up running against CD1 Democratic Congresswoman Diana DeGette? The outspoken, wealthy theocrat versus the liberal, experienced public servant. Some people say America is on the verge of a culture war. Maybe we ought to just get it over with.

4. Swinging for the fences.

I'm torn between handing fourth place in the GOP to an unemployed Bob Beauprez or to former CD3 Republican Congressman Scott McInnis, who flirted with the governor's race this year.

Businessman and policy maven Rutt Bridges was a Democratic Senate candidate in 2004, until he gracefully bowed out so the party could unite behind Ken Salazar. And he, too, flirted with a 2006 gubernatorial run. If he wants to stay involved, 2008 could be his best shot.

5. The next step's a doozy.

When current Democratic House speaker Andrew Romanoff opted out of the governor's race, he left a lot of people scratching their heads. It's not that Romanoff doesn't have limitless potential. It's that there simply aren't too many next steps available for the four-term state representative. The jump to a statewide Senate race is huge, but one which Romanoff would certainly be able to take.

The Republican bench gets a bit thin at this point. But a likely fifth-tier candidate could be (yikes!) Tom Tancredo, regardless of whether he holds his CD6 seat this November. Other 2008 GOP Senate candidates could be state legislators like Shawn Mitchell or David Balmer, both of whom seem to be using the Colorado state legislature purely as a stepping stone for a bigger things.

Think I'm nuts? Think one of the current Democratic CD7 candidates or Republican CD5 candidates could be a contender? Is there someone I overlooked? Who's your favorite Senate hopeful from either party? I'm curious.