Spinning the Colorado Pols Big Line
For political geeks, tracking the Colorado Pols Big Line is almost as fun as watching a Carmen Electra/Kelly Monaco dance-off. Sure the line is an unscientific mechanism based solely on the wild ass guesses of some sort-of anonymous bloggers. What's your point?
This week, the Big Line fluctuated wildly in the wake of the state assemblies. Both Ways Bob Beauprez's resounding GOP victory launched him into a tie with Democratic nominee Bill Ritter, despite the fact that Both Way's opponent, Mad Dog Marc Holtzman isn't backing down.
And CD6 Democratic nominee Bill Winter climbed to 7-1 odds. (The Big Line claims Winter's biggest problem is name recognition, so, you know, Bill Winter, Bill Winter, Bill Winter.)
But by far the most surprising odds are in CD7. And the resulting thread is sure to be full of accusations, innuendo and slander.
For most of the past year, assembly winner Ed Perlmutter has been leading the pack of Democratic challengers. But this week Peggy Lamm's strong poll numbers - and stellar video, perhaps - have convinced Colorado Pols to list her as the top Democrat, at 4-1 odds. The real shock, though, is Herb Rubenstein. Herb was something like 250-1 not too long ago, but his relentless campaigning, his outreach to bloggers and activists, and his unabashed liberalism lifted him to 100-1, to 25-1, to 12-1 and now to 10-1. Quite a climb.
All this drama has been good fun. But it's had the unfortunate side effect of leaving GOP insider Rubber Stamp Rick O'Donnell alone at the top of the CD7 pack, at 3-1. That number is misleading, though. CD7 is considered one of America's hottest political districts. It doesn't matter who the Democratic candidate is. The money will come flooding in after the primary is over. And the Democratic victor will have tons of name recognition. Meanwhile, the O'Donnell campaign can't make a move without screwing up. The top Democrat in CD7 should be the overall favorite, too.
This week, the Big Line fluctuated wildly in the wake of the state assemblies. Both Ways Bob Beauprez's resounding GOP victory launched him into a tie with Democratic nominee Bill Ritter, despite the fact that Both Way's opponent, Mad Dog Marc Holtzman isn't backing down.
And CD6 Democratic nominee Bill Winter climbed to 7-1 odds. (The Big Line claims Winter's biggest problem is name recognition, so, you know, Bill Winter, Bill Winter, Bill Winter.)
But by far the most surprising odds are in CD7. And the resulting thread is sure to be full of accusations, innuendo and slander.
For most of the past year, assembly winner Ed Perlmutter has been leading the pack of Democratic challengers. But this week Peggy Lamm's strong poll numbers - and stellar video, perhaps - have convinced Colorado Pols to list her as the top Democrat, at 4-1 odds. The real shock, though, is Herb Rubenstein. Herb was something like 250-1 not too long ago, but his relentless campaigning, his outreach to bloggers and activists, and his unabashed liberalism lifted him to 100-1, to 25-1, to 12-1 and now to 10-1. Quite a climb.
All this drama has been good fun. But it's had the unfortunate side effect of leaving GOP insider Rubber Stamp Rick O'Donnell alone at the top of the CD7 pack, at 3-1. That number is misleading, though. CD7 is considered one of America's hottest political districts. It doesn't matter who the Democratic candidate is. The money will come flooding in after the primary is over. And the Democratic victor will have tons of name recognition. Meanwhile, the O'Donnell campaign can't make a move without screwing up. The top Democrat in CD7 should be the overall favorite, too.
3 Comments:
I don't buy it. They claim Ritter wasn't an overwhelming success at the Dem assembly. They obviously weren't there. And, how is Marc Holzman's loss bad news for Ritter. He's still going to petition on - he's got the money, I mean his daddy's got the money for that. Go Marc go! :-)
If Lamm thought she could get the votes she would have gone the convention route. If even she knows she can't win among Dems then what's the point? Is she going to pull more Republicans and unaffiliateds? Fat chance. This one's ours to lose and Perlmutter's to win. Besides, he's a fine candidate.
It is possible that Rubenstein manager, Terry Snyder, is an insider at ColoradoPols and that the line has more to do with Perlmutter not hiring him, and Peggy buying advertising, then with any realistic predictions about the outcome of the primary.
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